Monty Hall Rides Again.

I want to play a little game with you – but first:
 
I ate a banana this morning; I usually cut half way through the stem with a kitchen knife and then break it open at the cut but, having had two minor knife related accidents this week, I decided it was time I learnt from experience and dispensed with the blade. A few years ago, I learnt (through a blip entry) that, of all the apes, humans are the only specie that opens bananas at the stalk end – even without using tools. Gorillas and the chimp family open them at the other end. If the only information an alien had about the apes was this detail, he would automatically assume that humans were the least intelligent of this group of animals. The stalk end of a banana is thicker and tougher because, when growing on the tree, the stalk carries the weight of the fruit.
One – nil to the lower simians.
 
On to the game: I have placed under one of these cups a modest prize, maybe the key to my car, but more likely (and more valuable) a coin of the realm. To win it, all you have to do is chose the cup that you think conceals the prize and point to it. I will then take one of the other two cups away, revealing that it does not cover the prize. You now have the opportunity of either keeping to your original choice, or changing it; make the right choice and there's a good chance that the prize will be yours. Most people make the wrong choice, including those who should know better. I had a colleague made the wrong choice and, even when it was explained to him, was adamant that he’d made the best one. I played the game with him repeatedly and, even when he was losing by a score of 10 against 20, he insisted that he was just unlucky. The game can be modified to make it pigeon friendly, it takes a pigeon about 10 trials (allegedly) to master the problem.
Two – nil to the lower vertebrates.
 
The game is known as the Monty Hall Dilemma and is based on a game show hosted by the said Mr Hall and, I used it, only the other day, as an example to justify my statement that statistics are not intuitive. It is actually a simple problem and the correct solution is easily explained.