BRIANW

By BRIANW

The Butterfly Effect, London

In chaos theory, the butterfly effect is the sensitive dependence on  initial conditions in which a small change in one state of a deterministic nonlinear system can result in large differences in a later state.
The term is closely associated with the work of mathematician and meteorologist Edward Lorenz. He noted that the butterfly effect is derived from the metaphorical example of the details of a tornado (the exact time of formation, the exact path taken) being influenced by minor perturbations such as a distant butterfly flapping its wings several weeks earlier.Lorenz discovered the effect when he observed runs of his weather model with initial condition data that were rounded in a seemingly inconsequential manner. He noted that the weather model would fail to reproduce the results of runs with the unrounded initial condition data. A very small change in initial conditions had created a significantly different outcome.
The idea that small causes may have large effects in weather was earlier recognized by French mathematician and engineer Henri Poincare. American mathematician and philosopher Norbert Weiner also contributed to this theory. Edward Lorenz's work placed the concept of instability of the Earth's atmosphere onto a quantitative base and linked the concept of instability to the properties of large classes of dynamic systems which are undergoing nonlinear dynamics and deterministic chaos.
The butterfly effect concept has since been used outside the context of weather science as a broad term for any situation where a small change is supposed to be the cause of larger consequences.

This last sentence resonates with me very strongly. With work it's the small changes in our work practices and how we are monitored that will have larger consequences. It's the lack of trust and appreciating our skills that are the killer.
Luckily, today was one of those beautiful, cold winter days that just lifted your spirits and this gorgeous display in Carnaby Street made me smile so much.

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