Black Swan Event
A black swan event - A black swan is an unpredictable event that is beyond what is normally expected of a situation and has potentially severe consequences. Black swan events are characterized by their extreme rarity, severe impact, and the widespread insistence they were obvious in hindsight.
Ok, most of these don't meet that definition precisely, but surely we've had enough 'black swan events' over the last 15 years, especially as they're becoming more frequent:
- Banking Crisis nearly leading to systemic bank failures. Peak Govt support £1,162bn, reduced over time to £22bn.
- Brexit decided by a vote with a marginal decision of 51.9% to 48.1%
- Worldwide pandemic with 6.5m deaths globally, lockdowns and massive UK Govt spending on furlough and supporting businesses etc (£300 to £400bn)
- War in Europe
- Partygate etc leading to PM having to resign
- Cost of Living Crisis - Inflation (CPI) up from 3.1% to 10.1% in only 12 months. Soaring household fuel bills - Govt massively subsidised 'price cap' for average households in winter 22/3 is still 96% higher than winter 21/2 at £2,500
- BoE intervention to prevent a liquidity crisis in defined benefit pension schemes, risking potential failures
- PM today resigning after only 44 days in office after ruining our reputation abroad and with the markets, and pushing up UK cost of debt and numerous major U turns. Our shortest serving Prime Minister ever.
Chinese curse - 'May he live in interesting times'
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