Yellow Warning

It used to be that a retailer - a building supplies company say - could stay in business by having prices that were competitive in their local area, offering local delivery, advertising in the local paper, acquiring and keeping a reputation for service and quality. If someone 200 km away was selling for less, it did not really matter - not many customers would ever find out or be able to get the product home

The model is not dead, but it is dying. The internet; cheap, out-of-town premises; the inequity and sclerosis of the business rating system; low-cost logistics; what local paper?

It's been a good day for buying DIY materials - I mean a good day for not stepping outside into a wall of water. A lot of measuring; a lot of logic, fitting the size of the pieces needed into the lengths available; the inevitable internet trawl - who sells it, what lengths do they sell, what is the delivery charge, is there a discount? It's quite demanding, it needs a clear head, a bit of organisation and, above all, time. I'm sure lots of people think, justifiably, that it is not worth the time - if it wasn't raining, I might agree!

So, at the moment, even an Internet retailer does not absolutely have to be the cheapest to survive. A good web site, good communication via messages or email or phone, name recognition, positioning in web search results: these will all maintain some sales, even if there is cheaper competition

But this is a transient state. AI is here, voice-operated personal assistants are here. How long before all my actions today look as quaint as using blotting paper? How long before I simply ask my phone to order skirting board for the living room, and trust that it will do the analysis and make decisions at least as good as mine? When retailers are faced with electronic buyers with no time constraints and access to perfect and complete market information, how do they stay in business except by always being cheapest? What are the ramifications of this? I think we can expect an acceleration of usual commercial evolution: bankruptcies, consolidation, monopolies. Interesting times

So the rain finally stopped at sundown. The cold air blowing in, that created the rain, is with us - the return of winter for a while. The sky cleared, we got a sunset of sorts, but this is the furthest I got from the house, stepping gingerly over sodden ground. It was worth it for all the reflections