the Solution

Global Warming day 3

What do I think - global warming is no longer some madcap scientist's idea, it is a proven fact. The effect that greenhouse gases have on our planet is not a wild estimate, conjecture or theoretical bullshit, it is a proven, calculable fact.

As we continue to pump more carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, more heat will be trapped, the ocean temperatures will rise, weather will probably become more violent and unpredictable, climate patterns will probably change, the ice caps will melt and the sea levels will rise.

The weather effect - this is the big decision that we have to make; do we believe that the warming oceans are affecting the weather patterns. As an engineer, I have to say very probably yes. Even though it is not proven 100%, it is such a compelling argument that I would not want to delay action until the weather change was visibly indisputable. Keep in mind, that from the moment that we decide to globally act, that is the climate state that we will have to live with for the next hundred or so years.

What needs to be done - if we wait until we can physically see all of these climate effects and say without a shadow of doubt, "Oh yes, this is caused by global warming", then it will be too late to do anything about it. We have to trust our scientists or even throw more scientists, statisticians, mathematicians, computer modelers and all the rest, at the problem and if the weather problem is confirmed beyond doubt - act!

Despite being armed with all the facts, proof and evidence, governments around the world are doing nothing that will at least slow down the problem. Gradually reducing emissions over the next century is not going to stop the temperatures from rising, but at least it will give our scientists a bit more time to assess the size of the problem and allow two or three generations of engineers to come up with solutions and design a new mode of living for us all.

The Kyoto protocol was set up to encourage governments around the world to reduce emissions and yet the USA emissions have actually increased. How can you expect third world countries to invest billions to reduce emissions when they see this statistic. It is up to the USA and the rest of the major powers to lead the way, not only drastically reducing their own emissions but providing massive aid to the smaller nations who may not be able to manage this task on their own.

The problem is that no one is dying in serious numbers. Until world climate death statistics exceed the combined total of cancer, heart disease, AIDS, road traffic accidents, disease, starvation, wars, then climate deaths will be considered to be collateral damage. Until a series of category 5 tornadoes rip through major cities and kills millions of people and cause trillions in damage, then nothing will be done.

Once the weather connection is proven and indisputable, then a global agreement has to be reached immediately and a global super government created, with the power to crush and take over countries that refuse to comply. Again, before this drastic action would take place, things would have to be approaching desperate and probably already too late. Once again let me remind you, the point at which action is taken defines our climate for at least the next hundred years.

How much time have we got - since the asteroidal Cretaceous-Paleogene (K-Pg) extinction event which wiped out the dinosaurs, mammals have blossomed, evolved and diversified. The average climate in this 65 million year period was a temperature of about 4°C warmer than today and a carbon dioxide level of 500ppm.

It seems to me that the 'normal' climate for mammals has to be the climate that they evolved in, namely the above paleogene, with its higher carbon dioxide levels giving rise to warmer temperatures. The current climate position (without man's interference) is way below the normal and heading towards another ice age.

With man's interference, the previously inevitable ice age has been avoided. The raised levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere at this moment will prevent the ice age feedback cycle from starting. Barring asteroidal impacts and super volcano eruptions, ice ages need never happen again. Man will finally be able to control the planet's climate.

Still, the temperature is a bit on the low side and to get back to mammalian ideals of paleogene levels of carbon dioxide and temperature levels, we need another hundred years of emissions. But once this level has been reached, we cannot allow carbon dioxide to rise any further.

This gives us a hundred, possibly two hundred years to reduce emissions to close to zero, providing that we start the reductions immediately.

The weather will probably get worse with the rising temperatures of the oceans. This is something that we are going to have to learn to live with as our new normal environment, as we are incapable of stopping the emissions with immediate effect. There will be extinctions. The warming of the oceans will have an effect on its ecosystem and this will definitely have a 'knock on' effect.

In an ideal world, we would freeze carbon dioxide levels at what we have today rather than go back to pre-industrial evolution, after all, we don't want to risk another ice age. But we have to be realistic about what is achievable.

From today, governments must force industry to reduce emissions, it can be gradual but must be consistent. A 'status quo' is not good enough, there has to be a reduction. I don't know what the numbers are, but I would guestimate that at least a third of the problem is ours as individuals, so we too MUST take part and reduce our consumption as much as possible.

Buy a bicycle for short journeys, take the bus or train rather than the car, switch the lights off when not in use, hang the washing out to dry instead of using the dryer, wash the dishes by hand, cut the plugs off all those silly kitchen gadgets. I am sure you get the idea without me writing another two pages of suggestions.

I think that we have actually stumbled into a very good situation. If it had not been for the industrial revolution, we would almost certainly have been heading into another ice age. I think our ancestors will thank us rather than curse us.

We are a pesky fly feeding on the back of a cow. If we bite too hard, the big tail is going to come and wipe us out.

I do hope you have enjoyed this short series and that you will comment; to agree, disagree or leave your own ideas.

Dave