Let the scavengers have their day...

So yes, jayzus, the French snap election. WTF?!?!


The more I think about it, the more I get a sense of what the ulterior motive might be. Please hear me out (politics in general are boring but French politics may be even more boring so feel free to stop reading here*):


- Macron's second presidency was only a last burst of anything-but-the-National-Front vote. He doesn't have a majority in the national assembly and it's been a mess since the last legislative elections.  He has to repeatedly use the atomic option, the 49.3 article that bypasses the consent of the national assembly.


- I believe that even he in his ivory tower realizes to what extent he is universally hated by the French (from mainland France – those from abroad understand better where he wants to go, his attempt at patching up a country deluded by its dreams of former grandeur and putting the day to day expenses on a credit card that reached melting point decades ago)


- Seen as the traditional right and the left are in bad shape, busy as they are in internal quarrels, without much hope of a big coherent party, and given the "rebranding" of the National Front (Front National) into the much less outwardly belligerent National “Gathering” (Rassemblement National), the chance of the latter making it to the second round of the next presidential election is almost guaranteed.

- And statistically, considering that they now sadly always reach the second round, they will eventually win the prize and then it truly is Game Over. The position of president in France is a position of great power.


I have come to believe that Macron knows that an RN prime minister is one of the most plausible consequences of this “surprise” dissolution of the assembly. He seized on the excuse of the massive and unsurprising bollocking his party received in the European elections to provide the FN/RN with an opportunity to achieve legislative power (with the trip switch safeguard of the presidential powers and more importantly the constitutional council) for at least two years. I believe that he will intervene very little in domestic policies and will concentrate on foreign policy and strengthening the contacts that will help him to bag his next big job at European level, where power is increasingly located. The man does not lack in personal ambition and the cult of the Self. He is also addicted to power. He will let the RN/FN “manage” France.


Between now and the next presidential election, the average RN voter (the average French moaner) will have had time to become disillusioned. The cries of “Bardella, arretez ce bordella” (“Bardella, stop this shit”) will resound from Bastille to Nation by the autumn of 2025 (at best) or spring 2026 (at worst). The French don’t usually demonstrate their anger in winter. It’s too cold. And wet.


I believe that the sad reality is that the only small chance of not having an RN president in 2027 (with or without strong support in the national assembly, but in any case better than what Macron has at the moment ) is to have an RN prime minister in 2024.


Brave new world...
 
 
* Spoiler alert: the French vote against the muppet currently in place out of anger for them, they then rapidly get angry with the new muppet they have just elected, they go on strike, they burn rubbish bags on the streets, the CRS on motorbikes come and violently repress the protest with the liberal use of telescopic batons and tear gas. Repeat ad nauseam.