High Risk

If I was being offered a medical intervention and was told that there is a 1 in 50 chance of something going wrong, I think I would take time to weigh up the pros and cons. I would certainly not take the decision lightly. How much do I really want the benefits; how bad could the untoward consequences be. (Actually, I have been in a situation like this - I'm not just imagining, I'm remembering)

Now that it's over, we know that, in the UK, the chance of dying in the Covid pandemic was less than 1 in 200. We all took the disease pretty seriously at the time

I have just read that the chances of a newly-observed, 90-metre-wide asteroid hitting planet earth in 7 year's time have been increased to 1 in 43. Astronomers are saying 'don't panic', says the article. Dad's Army knew very well that saying that is a perfect way to alarm people

There are other reassurances: The European Space agency says that new data will soon lead to the risk falling to a very low value. I think they mean that, 42 times (unfortunate number) out of 43, that's what happens. NASA says there have been other instances of objects with these odds, but they have always come to nothing - they even provide specific examples of everything working out fine. This is a spectacular example of unscientific reasoning - it's a complex version of 'don't panic'

A professor of planetary astronomy says it will probably be fine. Yep, 42 times in 43 is 'probably'. Anyway, don't panic, if it is going to hit us, we can fire a rocket at it. Somewhere I should be able to find the odds of a rocket-launch not succeeding... 

It's kind of nice to have something to worry about that isn't a world leader or the occurrence, against the odds, of the hottest January on record

On a bright shining day - without a cloud in the sky, never mind an asteroid - we had fun in Birmingham, which gets brighter and shinier as every new, reflective-glass building in the city-centre reconstruction is unveiled. We had a lovely time celebrating a birthday, that just happens to have co-incided with the sunniest day of the year so far. What are the chances...