A Window of Opportunity

Location: Warren Hill, Cannock Chase, Staffordshire

The accuracy of weather forecasts is often brought into question.  My impression is that their accuracy is inversely proportional to how far ahead you are looking.  Earlier this week I was asked if I could help out with my wife and her ride in crossing the busy road near the stables today.  The weather was due to be fine, before deteriorating over the rest of the weekend.

By this morning it had changed with heavy rain forecast from about 8 am.  As I left the supermarket at about that time, the first drops of rain had hit the windscreen of the car and only got heavier as I drove home.  We checked again.  The rain was due to last a couple of hours, then a brief window of about three hours, before further rain in the afternoon.

We delayed heading out, leaving an hour later as the rain started to become lighter.  As we arrived at the stables it had stopped and she was able to get a ride in over the next couple of hours.  As we left the stables the rain was just starting again.  I got the chance for a quick walk in one of the plantations on the Chase.  The autumn colours are now really beginning to show on the leaves.

The lesson for me is to have reasonable confidence with the short term forecast, and by that I mean in the next 6-8 hours.  We may well have given up without even trying and that would have only meant a missed opportunity.