LesTension

By LesTension

KIDDIE POND MALLARDS

It's a foggy foggy morning in the Glen and the mallards (Anas platyrhynchos) are passing time earth-bound and eating breakfast on the Kiddie Pond which is open all year while other waters are frozen.  It got that name because, in the Springtime the Department of Natural Resources plants trout here for the kiddies to catch.  The theory was that it would keep them off the major local trout streams where the "big boys" went to play. It didn't work out all that well.  The kids still fish there but so do a lot of the big boys who find it easier than wading the bigger waters.  It has a very soft bottom and anyone over 40 pounds (18kg) would sink in it.  More than a few big boys had to be pulled out of muck waist deep.  The Spring Hole is 100 feet across and a lot of water comes out of there; it flows toward the bottom of this photo and under the road to the Otter Pond, from which it flows to the Mullet River where the large trout live. 
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Technically it's called Glenbeulah Springs and toward the top of the photo the water goes back toward the hills of the moraine from which it emerges as a spring.  Many moons ago a student and I paddled a rubber raft out onto the spring hole in at attempt to determine how deep it was...that was before portable depth sounders.  All we had was a rock and 100 feet (30m) of rope.  We tied the rock to the end of the rope and lowered it overboard.  It stretched out the entire rope and hadn't hit bottom yet...so, presumably, it's at least 100 feet deep but the rock might have been going through some marl (muck.)
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Back to the fog.  There's a baker in the City of Fond du Lac about 20 miles west of the Glen at the foot of Lake Winnebago, the largest inland lake in Wisconsin.  Very early in the mornings, as he made his bread, etc. he noticed weather patterns over the lake.  Over many years he noticed that when there was fog on the lake, 90 days later (+/- 1 day) there was a precipitation event.  If cold enough it was snow...if not, it was rain.  He kept a log for decades.  
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His observations interested me as a scientist and I decided to see if that pattern also existed when there was fog over the land.  So I kept records of my observations just as a check against the baker's observations.  Recall that the premise was that 90 days (+/- 1 day) following the fog, there was a precipitation event.  I have records going back over 30 years and I'm batting 86% accuracy predicting precipitation over a three month time period...which is about the same as the baker's accuracy.  That beats the Hell out of the "official" Weather Bureau's 90 day forecast accuracy.  They barely get it right 48 hours in advance.  
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Talk to your baker....see if the same phenomenon holds world wide.
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BEST IN LARGE.

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