Always switch...

Trains not running from the Kingdom has presented an interesting wee statistical conundrum these last couple of weeks.

I usually catch the bus at the third stop on the bus route after the bus station. With everyone travelling on the buses, they are just passing on by because they were full.

Now the question is, do you wait on the next bus in the hope that it has enough space for everyone in front of you including yourself or do you start walking back up the bus route to catch a bus at an earlier stop.

It's a problem that is slightly mirrored** with the Monty Hall problem or the risk and reward mechanics that lie behind the TV quiz Deal or No Deal.

I switched, and started a very brisk stroll back up the bus route and managed to squeeze myself into a little floor space on the next bus.

** Of the three, I'd say, Deal or No Deal is the least predictable as all variables are random. Monty Hall is more predictable because the host knows what's behind the doors and my bus stop situation is even more predictable as you can see how most of the variables involved interact with each other but all of them revolve around the risk and reward situation which makes them very interesting situation to observe.